論文名稱(英文) A Study on of the Structure and Competitive Dynamics of the Thin Film Solar Cell Industry
研究生(中文) 蔡沛吟
研究生(英文) Pei-Yin Tsai
學號 R93724035
學位類別 碩士
出版年 2008
論文頁數 89
學校名稱 臺灣大學
學院名稱 管理學院
系所名稱 國際企業學研究所
指導教授 李吉仁 ;
語文別 中文
中文關鍵字 太陽能產業 ; 產業分析 ; 新興技術 ;
英文關鍵字 PV Industry ; Industrial Analysis ; Emerging Technology ;
論文使用權限 同意授權瀏覽/列印電子全文服務，於2018-09-01起公開。
中文摘要
為了減低對傳統石化能源的依賴，並且減少二氧化碳排放，世界先進國家無不極力尋找綠色能源以替代傳統的石化能源。太陽能發電是目前所有綠色能源中最為環保與乾淨的一種，太陽能產業在部分國家政府補助下也成為近年來成長最快速的產業之ㄧ。在經過快速成長時期後，一方面傳統矽晶太陽能電池開始面臨多晶矽原料因缺料而導致供應價格居高不下，另一方面，次世代的薄膜技術的發展也逐漸進入量產階段，太陽能電池產業會因為供需動態變化與替代技術的競爭，而產生結構的質變嗎？而國內廠商如何掌握薄膜太陽能技術發展的機會，切入這個產業的發展機會？這些議題構成本研究探討的核心議題。
本研究根據產業經濟的SCP典範，以及所衍生的五力分析架構，針對薄膜太陽能電池產業所面對的競爭動態，提出一個詳盡的結構分析，配合供需發展趨勢，以及競爭的關鍵因素，建構出太陽能產業未來可能的演進方向。最後，我們分析國內廠商進入此一產業的可行策略定位，並據以提出策略建議。
本研究發現新興技術如果能夠有適合的新興市場發揮其優勢，將可能快速進入市場，而下游市場轉變為地面型太陽能電廠的型態，使得競爭關鍵由轉換率轉為整體發電成本，提供了薄膜技術良好的發展利基。面對先進廠商快速擴張，國內廠商除了加緊量產，更應該利用台灣既有的電子產業聚落，從其他方面著手降低成本，以結盟電力平衡系統或垂直整合電廠設計的方式，建立競爭優勢。根據以上研究結果，我們提出研究意函與對後續研究的建議。
英文摘要
In order to reduce the consumption of traditional petrochemical energy and carbon dioxide emissions, almost all advanced countries are vigorously seeking substitution green energies. Solar energy is the most clean and environment friendly among all green energy and the PV industry becomes one of the fastest growing industry under some government subsidy in recent years. After the fast growth period, silicon-base solar cell faced with the shortage of the raw material which led to a high price level of poly-silicon products. At the same time, the second generation thin film solar cell technology is getting mature in operation. How such an emerging technology would affect the structure and competitive dynamics of the solar industry and how potential Taiwan entrants could enter into this arena are two major issues for this thesis research.
Based on the SCP paradigm and Porter’s five-force model, the current study first analyzes the current industry landscape and future prospect of the solar energy industry, which include demand analysis, identification of competitive factors and the development of alternative technologies. Based on these analyses, we then postulate the potentiality and entry strategy for potential entrants.
This research suggests that the thin film technology has a great potential to substitute the existing technology since the basis of technology competition has been shifted from the superiority of conversion rate to overall power generation costs. In addition, Taiwanese companies enter into thin film solar cell industry would face huge equipment expansion and over supply situation. Given the competitive pressure from worldwide leading companies, we suggest that potential entrants leverage advantages of electronics companies and form alliances with BOS system producers or pursue vertical integration to avoid threat from direct competition from the leading companies on the manufacturing cost. Implications of these results to practices and future research are also discussed.
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